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Market of influence home oil goes situation element analysis
From;  Author:Stand originally
Market of our country oil was in first half of the year 2008 advance in oscillation repeatedly, although be full of free and easy to rise and fall among them, but still maintain upgoing momentum on the whole. Come round to look from eye, it is good that the report of the American Ministry of Agriculture July makes profit to soja, of soja grow plan and growth rate all under the average level that level of the corresponding period mixed 5 years last year, in cultivate an area to cut down, per unit area yield of 2008/2009 year soybean predicts reductive influence falls, of soja of prospective whole world supply still be faced with tighten spruce situation, this pair of grease kind the market is formed prop up. But drop considerably as a result of latter soja price, our country importer accelerated soja to import pace. Basically mixed August centrally to harbor date November, this also makes short-term inside soja is faced with supply enough pressure. Concrete analysis is as follows:
One of, supply of domestic soybean market is short-term and opposite enough. Predict according to concerning a section, chinese soja sowed an area to be 9.5 million hectare 2008, increase 1.06 million hectare than 2007, amplitude is 12.56% . Predict Chinese soybean crop was 16.5 million tons 2008, relatively grew 3 million tons 2007, amplitude 22.22% . And quantity of total demand of home of soja of Chinese 2008/2009 year is as high as fifty million seven hundred and ninety-eight thousand tons, gap of huge supply and demand needs an entrance to make up for. The data of Chinese customs office shows, 1-6 month our country imports soybean this year 17.32 million tons, relatively the corresponding period grew 24.4% last year. China is spent to the entrance depend on sb or sth for existence of soja be as high as 70% , value of international soybean market has conclusive effect to domestic influence. End on July 21, stockpile of soybean of our country haven is 3615288 tons. Since this year, the history of concussion of with one action of soybean stockpile measure of our country is new tall, wander in perch all the time. After July, because latter soja price drops considerably, chinese importer accelerated soja to import pace. Basically mixed August centrally to harbor date November, this also makes short-term inside soja is faced with supply enough pressure.
2007/2008 year, the crop of our country soja follows soja compresses the volume rises, then the supply of soya-bean oil also appears rise. But the speed that because the growth rate of soya-bean oil supply is far,is less than consumptive demand to increase, accordingly although yield rises, the supply and demand of this year still faces tight situation. Output of soya-bean oil of 2007/2008 year China grows 9.7% to reach 6.505 million tons compared to the same period, inventory is 1.72 million tons. The plant of 1-6 month edible is oily 2008 entrance amount that Chinese Ministry of Agriculture issues is 4072287 tons, grow 12.28% compared to the same period. Domestic soya-bean oil always furnishs to grow 7.5% to reach ten million eight hundred and twenty-six thousand tons compared to the same period. And food of 2007/2008 year China and industrial industry continue to grow to the demand of soya-bean oil, growth range is respectively 9.6% with 6.7% , total demand of domestic soya-bean oil increases 9.4% to reach 9.13 million tons compared to the same period, prep above soya-bean oil always furnishs the growth range of 7.5% . The production from home and import data can see, the separation of supply and demand of domestic soya-bean oil is relatively at present clear still. The inventory of palm oil of haven of 2008 year home is climbed continuously litre, move in perch all the time after May. Palm oil inventory maintains historical perch, become the main factor that price of influence palm oil moves. Rapeseed oil market criterion the development as a result of aquiculture course of study, dish dregses of rice demand soars, oily factory produces dish to dregs of rice quickly, and make the supply of rapeseed oil enough. Will for a long time look, although gap of overall supply and demand props up grease kind the price, but short-term merchandise on hand is supplied constrictive situation alleviates and inventory pressure increases, make grease kind go situation bear pressure.
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