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Situation of market of soya-bean oil of home of second half of the year is preli
From;  Author:Stand originally
2008 first half of the year, soya-bean oil market is acuteness and fluctuant, rise first quarter, oscillation of weak force of the 2nd quarter. Predicting second half of the year because the tigidity of the weather hype of the 3rd quarter and demand grows crop of global inflation, soybean, soya-bean oil price will be propped up more by force. Home market is after digestive inventory pressure, soya-bean oil will be entered go up passageway. Suffer national adjusting control to expect an impact nevertheless, domestic soya-bean oil goes force is weak dregs of rice at soja and beans. Concrete analysis is as follows:
One, circumstance of domestic soybean crop
Predict according to concerning an orgnaization, chinese soja sowed an area to be 9.5 million hectare 2008, increase 1.06 million hectare than the 8.44 million hectare 2007, amplitude is 12.56% . Predict Chinese soybean crop was 16.5 million tons 2008, relatively 13.5 million tons of growth 2007 3 million tons, amplitude 22.22% . American Ministry of Agriculture predicts Chinese soybean crop was 16 million tons 2008, than going up year of growth 2.5 million tons, this data slightly under our country forecast. And quantity of total demand of home of soja of Chinese 2008/2009 year is as high as fifty million seven hundred and ninety-eight thousand tons, gap of huge supply and demand needs an entrance to make up for, american Ministry of Agriculture predicts soja of 2008/2009 year China imports a quantity to be as high as 35.5 million tons, than going up year grows 1.5 million tons, achieve the history new tall. China is spent to the entrance depend on sb or sth for existence of soja be as high as 70% , value of international soybean market has conclusive effect to domestic influence. Growth of soja import volume is brought about compress the quantity is outspread, synchronism of soya-bean oil crop grows. But the supply amplitude of domestic soya-bean oil under consumptive amplitude, make supply and demand of soya-bean oil of 2007/2008 year our country slants close, period end stock falls compared to the same period 1.4% . Breach of soya-bean oil supply and demand also should rely on an entrance to make up for. The our country since year already jumped 2006/2007 the country of soya-bean oil entrance with house the biggest whole world and consumptive country. In last few years import volume still rises ceaselessly, 2007/2008 year imports gross to achieve 2.6 million tons, 2008/2009 year hopeful breaks through 3 million tons.
2, whole of oil market demand shows tigidity to rise situation
Whole of demand of our country oil shows tigidity to rise situation. In going 13 years, domestic oil demand year add fast for 6.9% , at present consumption of average per capita makes an appointment with 18 kilograms, under the whole world average level. Soja still is the main raw material of grease, to 2010/2011 year 41% what soya-bean oil will occupy grease to supply gross, 37% prep above is current. Palm oil will grow 10% , achieve 31% . The breach of actual output and demand is in domestic grease 2008/2009 year will achieve 10 million tons or so. According to American Ministry of Agriculture supply and demand reported in June data, crop of soya-bean oil of 2008/2009 year whole world predicts to achieve 38.79 million tons, only than going up year grows 490 thousand tons; And consumption achieves 38.81 million tons, than going up year grows 730 thousand tons. Crop is added fast add under demand fast, produce inadequacy to need. Period end stock will fall 2.63 million tons, 3.08 million tons under the year before getting on 2.74 million tons of year to mix. Look into next year, because consumptive demand growth is rapid, stock of global soya-bean oil falls, soya-bean oil is supplied slant close, soya-bean oil price will be propped up more by force.
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